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Early Warning System for Avian Influenza

Bird Flu Radar: Real-Time Early Warning for Poultry Producers

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) poses a constant threat to the poultry industry. To stay ahead of outbreaks, proactive surveillance is essential. As part of our commitment to advanced epidemiological solutions, EpiMundi (formerly Ausvet Europe) has collaborated with leading ornithological organizations to develop the Bird Flu Radar—an early warning system designed for the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).

This tool provides a spatiotemporal risk assessment to estimate the probability of HPAI outbreaks in wild bird populations across Europe, offering producers critical intelligence to protect their flocks.

How It Works

The Bird Flu Radar uses sophisticated modeling to predict where HPAI is most likely to emerge. It integrates real-time data on disease outbreaks with complex information on wild bird movements and populations.

The system is built on a collaboration between four key partners:

  • Sovon (Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology): Coordinates the project, ensuring scientific rigor.
  • The Catalan Ornithological Institute (ICO): Provides data on the abundance and distribution of wild birds via the EuroBirdPortal (EBP), estimating the relative presence of 12 key wild bird species across Europe.
  • The British Trust for Ornithology (BTO): Uses EURING DataBank records to model the long-distance migration and short-distance dispersal of these species.
  • EpiMundi: Developed the core spatiotemporal risk assessment model, processing these inputs to generate actionable risk maps.

Real-Time Updates for Real-Time Risk

The strength of the Bird Flu Radar lies in its currency. The model is updated automatically every Monday morning. It ingests the latest reports of HPAI outbreaks (specifically H5 and H7 strains) in wild birds across Europe, recalculating the risk landscape for the week ahead.

This allows producers to:

  • Monitor Regional Risk: See if the probability of HPAI in wild birds is rising in their specific geographical area.
  • Adjust Biosecurity: Ramp up defensive measures during periods of predicted high risk.
  • Stay Informed: Access the latest data without needing to perform complex analyses themselves.

Project Outcomes and Resources

The project, titled ‘Implementation of an Early Warning System for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza’ (NP/EFSA/BIOHAW/2022/01), has already delivered significant tools for the industry:

  • The Bird Flu Radar GUI: A user-friendly interface updated weekly. Access the Radar
  • Scientific Validation: A full description of the model is available in the 2022 EFSA External Scientific Report. Read the Report
  • Explainer Video: A short training video explaining the model’s functionality. Watch the Video

EFSA is continuing to support he model’s development, ensuring it remains a cutting-edge defense against avian influenza.